TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:20 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Thomas Patton and Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thomas Patton' if Thomas Patton advances against Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng. This market will resolve to 'Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng' if Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng advances against Thomas Patton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Thomas Patton and Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thomas Patton' if Thomas Patton advances against Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng. This market will resolve to 'Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng' if Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng advances against Thomas Patton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market relies on the incentives of traders who aim to accurately forecast the event's outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than traditional sportsbooks, especially in response to breaking news or late-developing signals.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to represent the collective assessment of the event's potential results. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing perceptions regarding the M25 Luan match.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Luan match as reported by recognized authorities in the sport. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could all impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Unexpected announcements or developments related to either Thomas Patton or Siu Chi Nicholas Cheng could also trigger significant price movements. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, might also play a role in shaping trader behavior and influencing the price of shares in this market.