TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:16 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Shaoyun Liu and Lingxi Zhao in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shaoyun Liu' if Shaoyun Liu advances against Lingxi Zhao. This market will resolve to 'Lingxi Zhao' if Lingxi Zhao advances against Shaoyun Liu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Shaoyun Liu and Lingxi Zhao in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shaoyun Liu' if Shaoyun Liu advances against Lingxi Zhao. This market will resolve to 'Lingxi Zhao' if Lingxi Zhao advances against Shaoyun Liu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly assess the probability of an outcome. If prediction market odds significantly diverge from sportsbook odds, it could indicate disagreement about the underlying probabilities or differing levels of information available to each group. However, it's important to remember that both represent forecasts and are subject to error, and this market's price is driven by individual traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shaoyun Liu vs Lingxi Zhao match. The platform will rely on publicly available and widely accepted sources to determine the winner of the match. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements to stay informed about the event's progress and potential resolution triggers. The final result will be used to determine which shares pay out.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the players’ form, injuries, or changes in coaching strategy could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or changes in tournament standings, could also impact the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, although to a lesser extent. Major upsets in similar matches or unexpected announcements related to the event itself are other potential catalysts that could move this market.