TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 5:26 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Julian Alonso and Hiroki Sakagawa in the M25 Las Vegas, NV, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julian Alonso' if Julian Alonso advances against Hiroki Sakagawa. This market will resolve to 'Hiroki Sakagawa' if Hiroki Sakagawa advances against Julian Alonso. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Julian Alonso and Hiroki Sakagawa in the M25 Las Vegas, NV, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julian Alonso' if Julian Alonso advances against Hiroki Sakagawa. This market will resolve to 'Hiroki Sakagawa' if Hiroki Sakagawa advances against Julian Alonso. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event. Currently, the market is driven by trader sentiment, with the price fluctuating based on supply and demand for shares related to each fighter winning the match. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Julian Alonso vs Hiroki Sakagawa match, as determined by the event organizers. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be eligible to receive their payout based on the final share price at the time of resolution. This provides a clear and objective process for determining the winner of this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding injuries to either Julian Alonso or Hiroki Sakagawa would likely have a significant impact. Updates on their training regimens, fight strategies, or physical condition could also move the market. Public statements from either fighter or their teams, as well as expert analysis from boxing commentators, could also sway trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in betting patterns at traditional sportsbooks might also be reflected in this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.