TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:33 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Niklas Grunewald and Trishan Dhawan in the M25 Kigali, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Niklas Grunewald' if Niklas Grunewald advances against Trishan Dhawan. This market will resolve to 'Trishan Dhawan' if Trishan Dhawan advances against Niklas Grunewald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Niklas Grunewald and Trishan Dhawan in the M25 Kigali, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Niklas Grunewald' if Niklas Grunewald advances against Trishan Dhawan. This market will resolve to 'Trishan Dhawan' if Trishan Dhawan advances against Niklas Grunewald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. If there's a significant difference between the implied probability on Polymarket and sportsbook odds, it could indicate disagreement about the likely outcome of the M25 Kigali tennis match, or differing levels of information available to each group.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the M25 Kigali tennis match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the combined judgment of all participants on Polymarket, and can move rapidly as new information becomes available or opinions shift regarding the players' chances of winning.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Kigali tennis match, determining which player ultimately won. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule, could also lead to price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning the M25 Kigali tennis match has the potential to move this market.