TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:26 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Kael Shalin Shah and Lenny Petit in the M25 Kigali, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kael Shalin Shah' if Kael Shalin Shah advances against Lenny Petit. This market will resolve to 'Lenny Petit' if Lenny Petit advances against Kael Shalin Shah. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Kael Shalin Shah and Lenny Petit in the M25 Kigali, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kael Shalin Shah' if Kael Shalin Shah advances against Lenny Petit. This market will resolve to 'Lenny Petit' if Lenny Petit advances against Kael Shalin Shah. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities. If a significant amount of money is wagered on a particular outcome, the odds will shift accordingly, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast events as they incorporate information from a diverse range of participants, though discrepancies can still occur based on differing information or risk assessments.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The market's efficiency depends on the volume of trading and the diversity of opinions represented among the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Kigali match between Kael Shalin Shah and Lenny Petit. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions for either Kael Shalin Shah or Lenny Petit could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also create volatility. Furthermore, general tennis news, expert analysis, or even large individual trades on Polymarket can all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 13, 2026.