TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 7:49 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Axel Nefve and Alec Beckley in the M25 Kigali, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Axel Nefve' if Axel Nefve advances against Alec Beckley. This market will resolve to 'Alec Beckley' if Alec Beckley advances against Axel Nefve. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Axel Nefve and Alec Beckley in the M25 Kigali, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Axel Nefve' if Axel Nefve advances against Alec Beckley. This market will resolve to 'Alec Beckley' if Alec Beckley advances against Axel Nefve. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and adjust probabilities based on new information. If sportsbook odds heavily favor one player, but traders in this market believe the match is closer, the implied probabilities will diverge. It's common to see prediction markets offer more accurate forecasts, especially when a large number of participants contribute to the pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the M25 Kigali tennis match between Axel Nefve and Alec Beckley. The platform will verify the winner against publicly available and reliable sources, such as official tournament websites and sports news outlets. The outcome will be determined by the player who wins the match, as officially recorded by the tournament organizers. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule, could also cause price movements. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also play a role, although the market is primarily driven by informed traders expressing their beliefs. A strong performance by either player in a preceding match would likely impact the trading volume and price of shares.