TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:55 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between AUM HIREN THAKKAR and Mayank Sharma in the M25 Kigali, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'AUM HIREN THAKKAR' if AUM HIREN THAKKAR advances against Mayank Sharma. This market will resolve to 'Mayank Sharma' if Mayank Sharma advances against AUM HIREN THAKKAR. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between AUM HIREN THAKKAR and Mayank Sharma in the M25 Kigali, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'AUM HIREN THAKKAR' if AUM HIREN THAKKAR advances against Mayank Sharma. This market will resolve to 'Mayank Sharma' if Mayank Sharma advances against AUM HIREN THAKKAR. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders. If a large number of traders believe an outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the event's potential. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbook odds in accuracy, particularly when information isn't widely available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the M25 Kigali match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the event could also affect perceptions of player momentum. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could impact trading activity. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning has the potential to move this market.