TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:15 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Zane Stevens and Petar Jovic in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zane Stevens' if Zane Stevens advances against Petar Jovic. This market will resolve to 'Petar Jovic' if Petar Jovic advances against Zane Stevens. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Zane Stevens and Petar Jovic in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zane Stevens' if Zane Stevens advances against Petar Jovic. This market will resolve to 'Petar Jovic' if Petar Jovic advances against Zane Stevens. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by experts or algorithms. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception or promotional offers, while this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell shares based on their own analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can provide a broader understanding of potential outcomes and reveal where the market believes there might be value.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the collective intelligence of the traders participating. This dynamic pricing allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the fight's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the event organizers for the M25 Darwin fight. The platform will then determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to shareholders accordingly. It's important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable information to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight commentary from analysts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the fight's location or rules could also play a role. Public polls or expert predictions, while not directly influencing the market, might affect trader behavior. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either fighter winning has the potential to move the market substantially before Oct 13, 2026.