TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:25 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Ethan Matthews and Archie Frost in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ethan Matthews' if Ethan Matthews advances against Archie Frost. This market will resolve to 'Archie Frost' if Archie Frost advances against Ethan Matthews. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ethan Matthews and Archie Frost in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ethan Matthews' if Ethan Matthews advances against Archie Frost. This market will resolve to 'Archie Frost' if Archie Frost advances against Ethan Matthews. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregate assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast for the Darwin M25 matchup. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the likelihood of each player winning.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Ethan Matthews vs Archie Frost M25 Darwin match. The platform will verify the winner based on publicly available results and information from trusted sources. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on their holdings in the winning outcome. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a fair and transparent outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also create movement. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants on Polymarket can cause noticeable price fluctuations. Monitoring tennis news and analyzing player statistics are key signals to watch, as is observing the trading activity within this market itself. Any developments that alter the perceived probability of either player winning will likely impact the market price.