TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:08 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Emmanuel Valsamis and Michael Caspanello in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emmanuel Valsamis' if Emmanuel Valsamis advances against Michael Caspanello. This market will resolve to 'Michael Caspanello' if Michael Caspanello advances against Emmanuel Valsamis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Emmanuel Valsamis and Michael Caspanello in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emmanuel Valsamis' if Emmanuel Valsamis advances against Michael Caspanello. This market will resolve to 'Michael Caspanello' if Michael Caspanello advances against Emmanuel Valsamis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. The current price indicates the collective assessment of all traders on Polymarket regarding the result of the Darwin M25 match.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Darwin M25 match between Emmanuel Valsamis and Michael Caspanello. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding the players' form, injuries, or changes to their strategies could significantly impact the odds. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or shifts in public sentiment could drive price changes. Monitoring news sources and observing trading activity on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential catalysts for movement in this market.