TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:56 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Casey Hoole and Stefan Vujic in the M25 Darwin, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casey Hoole' if Casey Hoole advances against Stefan Vujic. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Vujic' if Stefan Vujic advances against Casey Hoole. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Casey Hoole and Stefan Vujic in the M25 Darwin, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casey Hoole' if Casey Hoole advances against Stefan Vujic. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Vujic' if Stefan Vujic advances against Casey Hoole. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market’s prices are driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and traditional sportsbooks, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Polymarket and sportsbook lines tend to converge as more information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe Casey Hoole will win, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hoole vs Vujic fight, as determined by the relevant boxing authorities. The market will settle to 100% for the winning fighter, and 0% for the losing fighter. Any circumstances leading to a draw will be handled according to Polymarket’s market rules, which are available on the market page.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, injuries, or changes in their fight preparation could significantly shift the odds. Public statements from the fighters or their teams, as well as expert analysis, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, betting patterns observed on Polymarket itself can create momentum, driving prices up or down based on trader behavior. Unexpected developments leading up to Oct 18, 2026 are likely to cause the most substantial movements.