TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Arcon and Jayden Tzirtis in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Arcon' if Adrian Arcon advances against Jayden Tzirtis. This market will resolve to 'Jayden Tzirtis' if Jayden Tzirtis advances against Adrian Arcon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Arcon and Jayden Tzirtis in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Arcon' if Adrian Arcon advances against Jayden Tzirtis. This market will resolve to 'Jayden Tzirtis' if Jayden Tzirtis advances against Adrian Arcon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice-versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. This allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the M25 Darwin match.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results of the M25 Darwin match, as reported by the governing body or official tournament organizers. The market will determine which competitor, Adrian Arcon or Jayden Tzirtis, is declared the winner of the match. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions in the market.
Several signals could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the physical condition or recent performance of either Adrian Arcon or Jayden Tzirtis would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule, venue, or potential rule changes could also shift the odds. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, may also play a role, though to a lesser extent. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of each competitor's chances of winning could lead to movement in this market.