TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 5:09 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Shu Matsuoka and Dominick Mosejczuk in the M25 Austin, TX, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shu Matsuoka' if Shu Matsuoka advances against Dominick Mosejczuk. This market will resolve to 'Dominick Mosejczuk' if Dominick Mosejczuk advances against Shu Matsuoka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Shu Matsuoka and Dominick Mosejczuk in the M25 Austin, TX, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shu Matsuoka' if Shu Matsuoka advances against Dominick Mosejczuk. This market will resolve to 'Dominick Mosejczuk' if Dominick Mosejczuk advances against Shu Matsuoka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the event, they can create price pressure that moves the odds on Polymarket closer to their assessment. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before major events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Matsuoka vs Mosejczuk match, as reported by the governing body of the competition. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout for winning shares on Polymarket shortly after the event concludes and the official results are available. The market will then be closed and all outstanding shares will be settled.
Several signals could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in training regimens, or updated match previews could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the event’s conditions, such as weather forecasts or venue changes, could also have an impact. Publicly available analysis from sports analysts and commentators, as well as any significant betting activity observed in traditional sportsbooks, might also prompt traders to adjust their positions and move the price of shares on Polymarket.