TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 2:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Quinn Vandecasteele and Sebastian Gorzny in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Quinn Vandecasteele' if Quinn Vandecasteele advances against Sebastian Gorzny. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Quinn Vandecasteele. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Quinn Vandecasteele and Sebastian Gorzny in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Quinn Vandecasteele' if Quinn Vandecasteele advances against Sebastian Gorzny. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Quinn Vandecasteele. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and include a profit margin, while this market represents the collective belief of informed traders. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the crowd perceives information differently than bookmakers, or that one venue has access to unique insights. It's common to see prediction markets become more accurate closer to the event as more information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange shares, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the event's potential results. The more shares purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price, and the greater the implied probability of that outcome happening.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Vandecasteele vs Gorzny match, as declared by the governing tennis authority. Any disputes or official rulings regarding the match will be considered in determining the final outcome. The platform will then distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result, based on the final share prices at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. News regarding player form, injuries, or changes in coaching staff could all significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or broader shifts in the tennis rankings, could also play a role. Furthermore, any public statements from the players themselves or their teams could impact the market. Major upsets in similar tournaments leading up to Oct 22, 2026 could also cause traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions.