TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 2:32 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Iker Urribarrens Ramirez and Karl Poling in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iker Urribarrens Ramirez' if Iker Urribarrens Ramirez advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Iker Urribarrens Ramirez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Iker Urribarrens Ramirez and Karl Poling in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iker Urribarrens Ramirez' if Iker Urribarrens Ramirez advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Iker Urribarrens Ramirez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, and can sometimes diverge from sportsbook odds due to differing information or analytical approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and there is no external influence on the pricing process.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Austin, TX tennis match between Iker Urribarrens Ramirez and Karl Poling, as reported by the tournament organizers. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the winner. The outcome will be determined by the official results available publicly.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in the tennis world, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants on Polymarket could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market evolves leading up to the match’s conclusion.