TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 6:31 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Aidan Mchugh and Karl Poling in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aidan Mchugh' if Aidan Mchugh advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Aidan Mchugh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Aidan Mchugh and Karl Poling in the M25 Austin, TX, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aidan Mchugh' if Aidan Mchugh advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Aidan Mchugh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in biases and public perception. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, analytical approaches, or simply the incentive structures of each venue. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate new information more rapidly than sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Austin matchup between Aidan Mchugh and Karl Poling. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets based on the verified outcome.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the performance or condition of Aidan Mchugh or Karl Poling, such as training updates, injury reports, or recent match results, could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the event itself, such as changes in venue or scheduling, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader trends in the M25 competitive scene or shifts in public opinion could contribute to movement in this market.