TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:24 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Axel Garcian and Ruslan Serazhetdinov in the M15+H Rodez, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Axel Garcian' if Axel Garcian advances against Ruslan Serazhetdinov. This market will resolve to 'Ruslan Serazhetdinov' if Ruslan Serazhetdinov advances against Axel Garcian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Axel Garcian and Ruslan Serazhetdinov in the M15+H Rodez, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Axel Garcian' if Axel Garcian advances against Ruslan Serazhetdinov. This market will resolve to 'Ruslan Serazhetdinov' if Ruslan Serazhetdinov advances against Axel Garcian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals wagering their own capital. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when there's a lot of uncertainty. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into public sentiment and potential value bets, though it's important to remember that neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Garcian vs Serazhetdinov fight. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution over the possible results. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the fight gets, the more the price will reflect the perceived likelihood of each fighter winning, influenced by news, injuries, and other relevant information. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and adjust accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the fight, as declared by the relevant boxing authorities. Any official decision, including a knockout, technical knockout, decision, or disqualification, will determine the winning outcome. The platform will rely on widely accepted sources to verify the result and settle the market accordingly, ensuring a fair and transparent process for all participants.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. News regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about the fight's location or rules could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected by betting patterns or expert analysis, would likely be reflected in the price of shares. Monitoring these factors closely is crucial for understanding potential market movements before Oct 13, 2026.