TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:51 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Toshiki Karigyo and Hien Pham in the M15 Tanagura, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toshiki Karigyo' if Toshiki Karigyo advances against Hien Pham. This market will resolve to 'Hien Pham' if Hien Pham advances against Toshiki Karigyo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Toshiki Karigyo and Hien Pham in the M15 Tanagura, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toshiki Karigyo' if Toshiki Karigyo advances against Hien Pham. This market will resolve to 'Hien Pham' if Hien Pham advances against Toshiki Karigyo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. This allows for a fluid adjustment of probabilities as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Tanagura: Toshiki Karigyo vs Hien Pham fight, as determined by the event organizers. The fighter declared the winner by the official decision will be the resolving outcome for this market. The platform will then distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result, based on the final share prices at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, health, or potential injuries would likely have a significant impact. Changes in public perception, fueled by media coverage or social media sentiment, could also shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about fight rules or venue changes might also cause fluctuations. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations and move the market accordingly.