TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 8:22 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arvid Nordquist and Noah Thurner in the M15 Szabolcsveresmart, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arvid Nordquist' if Arvid Nordquist advances against Noah Thurner. This market will resolve to 'Noah Thurner' if Noah Thurner advances against Arvid Nordquist. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arvid Nordquist and Noah Thurner in the M15 Szabolcsveresmart, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arvid Nordquist' if Arvid Nordquist advances against Noah Thurner. This market will resolve to 'Noah Thurner' if Noah Thurner advances against Arvid Nordquist. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. If a significant disparity emerges between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both. However, it's important to note that prediction market odds can be more sensitive to new information and shifts in sentiment than traditional sportsbook lines.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price can fluctuate significantly based on news, analysis, and even overall market sentiment, offering a dynamic representation of expectations for the Arvid Nordquist vs Noah Thurner match.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arvid Nordquist vs Noah Thurner match, as determined by the official tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, broader trends in tennis betting or even general market risk appetite could indirectly affect trading activity. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the match outcome is key to understanding potential price movements in this market.