TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 8:37 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikita Mashtakov and Noah Lopez in the M15 Sibenik, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikita Mashtakov' if Nikita Mashtakov advances against Noah Lopez. This market will resolve to 'Noah Lopez' if Noah Lopez advances against Nikita Mashtakov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikita Mashtakov and Noah Lopez in the M15 Sibenik, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikita Mashtakov' if Nikita Mashtakov advances against Noah Lopez. This market will resolve to 'Noah Lopez' if Noah Lopez advances against Nikita Mashtakov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Sibenik match between Nikita Mashtakov and Noah Lopez. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match. The exact details of the verification process are outlined in the platform’s documentation, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions for either Nikita Mashtakov or Noah Lopez could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or even weather forecasts impacting the match could also play a role. Public sentiment and any large trades on Polymarket itself can also cause price movements, as traders react to new information or adjust their positions based on evolving perceptions of the likely outcome.