TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:05 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Staeheli and Daniil Sarksian in the M15 Shenzhen, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Staeheli' if Luca Staeheli advances against Daniil Sarksian. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Sarksian' if Daniil Sarksian advances against Luca Staeheli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Staeheli and Daniil Sarksian in the M15 Shenzhen, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Staeheli' if Luca Staeheli advances against Daniil Sarksian. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Sarksian' if Daniil Sarksian advances against Luca Staeheli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while this market aims to reflect the true probabilities as assessed by traders. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbooks in accuracy, as the wisdom of the crowd can often correct for biases present in individual oddsmakers’ assessments. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful data point when forming your own opinion on the likely outcome of the Shenzhen tennis match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on Polymarket regarding the Shenzhen tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shenzhen tennis match between Luca Staeheli and Daniil Sarksian as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the match result as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even updated rankings could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player might also affect predictions. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could create momentum and drive price changes. Monitoring tennis news and observing trading volume will be key to understanding potential market movements leading up to Oct 30, 2026.