TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 6:01 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Lleyton Richards and Daniil Sarksian in the M15 Shenzhen, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lleyton Richards' if Lleyton Richards advances against Daniil Sarksian. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Sarksian' if Daniil Sarksian advances against Lleyton Richards. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lleyton Richards and Daniil Sarksian in the M15 Shenzhen, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lleyton Richards' if Lleyton Richards advances against Daniil Sarksian. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Sarksian' if Daniil Sarksian advances against Lleyton Richards. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. If a significant disparity emerges between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sources.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Lleyton Richards vs Daniil Sarksian tennis match in Shenzhen. The platform will verify the result against official sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player might also impact the market. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create momentum and drive price movements. Monitoring tennis news and analyzing player statistics will be key to understanding potential catalysts that could move this market before it resolves.