TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 6:33 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicola Senn and Romain Faucon in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicola Senn' if Nicola Senn advances against Romain Faucon. This market will resolve to 'Romain Faucon' if Romain Faucon advances against Nicola Senn. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicola Senn and Romain Faucon in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicola Senn' if Nicola Senn advances against Romain Faucon. This market will resolve to 'Romain Faucon' if Romain Faucon advances against Nicola Senn. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing a player's chances, the odds on Polymarket may move in the opposite direction. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, though transaction fees and market liquidity should be considered.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular player, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their victory. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Sharm ElSheikh tennis match, as officially declared by the tournament organizers, will determine the settlement of this market. Any disputes or challenges to the official result will be considered based on widely accepted and publicly available information. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on player form could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, might also impact the market. Any significant information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning is likely to cause movement in the odds on Polymarket.