TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 6:31 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jorge Plans and Rihards Neimanis in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jorge Plans' if Jorge Plans advances against Rihards Neimanis. This market will resolve to 'Rihards Neimanis' if Rihards Neimanis advances against Jorge Plans. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jorge Plans and Rihards Neimanis in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jorge Plans' if Jorge Plans advances against Rihards Neimanis. This market will resolve to 'Rihards Neimanis' if Rihards Neimanis advances against Jorge Plans. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to balance their risk and ensure profitability, while this market allows participants to express their own beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Comparing the two can offer insights into where the crowd believes value lies, and how that differs from the professional oddsmakers’ assessment of the match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of either Jorge Plans or Rihards Neimanis winning the match. This creates a constantly updating probability forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Jorge Plans vs Rihards Neimanis match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the winning shares. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified result of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about either player's preparation or strategy could also move the market. Furthermore, early results from other matches within the M15 Sharm ElSheikh tournament might influence perceptions of overall player strength and impact the odds. General tennis news and analysis could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.