TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 8:43 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Dominik Guzmicky and Malek El-Qurneh in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Guzmicky' if Dominik Guzmicky advances against Malek El-Qurneh. This market will resolve to 'Malek El-Qurneh' if Malek El-Qurneh advances against Dominik Guzmicky. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Dominik Guzmicky and Malek El-Qurneh in the M15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Guzmicky' if Dominik Guzmicky advances against Malek El-Qurneh. This market will resolve to 'Malek El-Qurneh' if Malek El-Qurneh advances against Dominik Guzmicky. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can express that view by trading shares, potentially causing the prediction market odds to diverge. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities, especially as an event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where shares are bought and sold, adjusting the price based on supply and demand. The price of a share representing a particular outcome reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a specific outcome, its price increases, signaling a higher perceived chance of that outcome occurring. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price, indicating decreasing confidence. This dynamic process creates a constantly updated probability forecast for the Guzmicky vs El-Qurneh match.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Sharm ElSheikh tennis match between Dominik Guzmicky and Malek El-Qurneh. The platform will verify the winner based on official tournament results and standings, ensuring a transparent and accurate settlement process. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized and the outcome is officially declared.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or recent match results for either Dominik Guzmicky or Malek El-Qurneh would likely have an impact. Significant changes in weather conditions at the tournament location could also affect the perceived advantage of either player. Additionally, large trading volume from informed bettors or shifts in public sentiment could drive price movements, reflecting changing expectations about the outcome of the Guzmicky vs El-Qurneh match.