TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 12:05 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Raffaele Ciurnelli and Lorenzo Bocchi in the M15 Selva Gardena, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raffaele Ciurnelli' if Raffaele Ciurnelli advances against Lorenzo Bocchi. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Bocchi' if Lorenzo Bocchi advances against Raffaele Ciurnelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Raffaele Ciurnelli and Lorenzo Bocchi in the M15 Selva Gardena, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raffaele Ciurnelli' if Raffaele Ciurnelli advances against Lorenzo Bocchi. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Bocchi' if Lorenzo Bocchi advances against Raffaele Ciurnelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that the market perceives information differently or that one venue has a more efficient pricing mechanism. It's important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential result of the Ciurnelli vs Bocchi match.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the M15 Selva Gardena tennis match between Raffaele Ciurnelli and Lorenzo Bocchi. The platform will determine the winner based on publicly available and verifiable data, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, might also play a role. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves leading up to Nov 3, 2026.