TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:08 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Dominik Matic and Filippo Valdetara in the M15 Selva Gardena, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Matic' if Dominik Matic advances against Filippo Valdetara. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Valdetara' if Filippo Valdetara advances against Dominik Matic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Dominik Matic and Filippo Valdetara in the M15 Selva Gardena, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Matic' if Dominik Matic advances against Filippo Valdetara. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Valdetara' if Filippo Valdetara advances against Dominik Matic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information and perspectives that sportsbooks may overlook, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, though this isn't always the case. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view of the expected outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Dominik Matic vs Filippo Valdetara tennis match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event winner. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift expectations. For example, an announcement of an injury to either Dominik Matic or Filippo Valdetara would likely impact the odds. Furthermore, early match performance in other tournaments leading up to the event, or even weather forecasts for Selva Gardena, could all contribute to price movements. Unexpected upsets in related matches might also influence traders’ beliefs and therefore the market.