TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
This market refers to the tennis match between Alberto Morolli and Dean Thurner in the M15 Selva Gardena, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alberto Morolli' if Alberto Morolli advances against Dean Thurner. This market will resolve to 'Dean Thurner' if Dean Thurner advances against Alberto Morolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alberto Morolli and Dean Thurner in the M15 Selva Gardena, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alberto Morolli' if Alberto Morolli advances against Dean Thurner. This market will resolve to 'Dean Thurner' if Dean Thurner advances against Alberto Morolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. This can be due to the differing incentives of traders versus bookmakers, and the wisdom of the crowd effect present in prediction markets. Sportsbooks often adjust odds based on liability and public betting patterns, while this market reflects the collective belief of informed traders. Discrepancies can emerge based on specialized knowledge or differing interpretations of available information, potentially creating opportunities for arbitrage or informed betting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants, creating a real-time forecast for the Morolli vs Thurner match.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Selva Gardena match between Alberto Morolli and Dean Thurner. Any official announcements or results from the governing body of the event will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified result.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or strategic announcements from either Morolli or Thurner’s teams could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in related matches or changes in expert analysis could also impact the odds. Furthermore, significant trading volume from well-informed traders might indicate new information or a shift in expectations, potentially causing a noticeable movement in the market price. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.