TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 4:47 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Victor Bini and Manuel Mouilleron Salvo in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Victor Bini' if Victor Bini advances against Manuel Mouilleron Salvo. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mouilleron Salvo' if Manuel Mouilleron Salvo advances against Victor Bini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Victor Bini and Manuel Mouilleron Salvo in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Victor Bini' if Victor Bini advances against Manuel Mouilleron Salvo. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mouilleron Salvo' if Manuel Mouilleron Salvo advances against Victor Bini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. However, it's important to note that prediction market odds are dynamic and change based on new information and trading activity, potentially converging with sportsbook odds as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand from users trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Victor Bini vs Manuel Mouilleron Salvo tennis match in Quito. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning player and settle the market accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (weather, court surface), or updates on player form could all shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself could create momentum and move the market price. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the perceived probability of each player winning.