TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:49 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Miles Clark and Bernardo Casares in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miles Clark' if Miles Clark advances against Bernardo Casares. This market will resolve to 'Bernardo Casares' if Bernardo Casares advances against Miles Clark. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Miles Clark and Bernardo Casares in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miles Clark' if Miles Clark advances against Bernardo Casares. This market will resolve to 'Bernardo Casares' if Bernardo Casares advances against Miles Clark. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If there's a significant discrepancy, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations for the Quito tennis match. The current price reflects the perceived likelihood of a particular player winning.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Miles Clark versus Bernardo Casares tennis match in Quito. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. The final result will be publicly available on Polymarket.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 13, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (such as weather), or updates on their recent performance could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about either player’s fitness or strategy could also cause significant price movement. Furthermore, any major upsets in other related tennis tournaments might influence perceptions of the players’ overall form and ability, impacting trading activity in this market. Any new information related to the players’ preparation for the match is likely to be impactful.