TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 6:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Andre Galarraga and Daniel Salazar in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Andre Galarraga' if Mario Andre Galarraga advances against Daniel Salazar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Salazar' if Daniel Salazar advances against Mario Andre Galarraga. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Andre Galarraga and Daniel Salazar in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Andre Galarraga' if Mario Andre Galarraga advances against Daniel Salazar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Salazar' if Daniel Salazar advances against Mario Andre Galarraga. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis. If there's a significant discrepancy between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that prediction market participants have access to information or insights not fully incorporated into traditional betting markets. It's a fascinating comparison of different forecasting approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to new information and changing sentiment regarding the Galarraga vs Salazar match. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Galarraga vs Salazar match as determined by the relevant sporting authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will determine the payout of shares in this market. It's important to note that the resolution process is independent and relies on external verification.
Several signals could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in training regimens, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations. Public commentary from analysts or experts, as well as shifts in betting patterns on sportsbooks, might also impact the market. Unexpected developments leading up to the match, such as weather conditions or venue changes, could also introduce volatility. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either fighter winning the Galarraga vs Salazar match has the potential to move the market.