TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 6:32 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Manuel Mouilleron Salvo and Francisco Montana in the M15 Quito, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mouilleron Salvo' if Manuel Mouilleron Salvo advances against Francisco Montana. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Montana' if Francisco Montana advances against Manuel Mouilleron Salvo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Manuel Mouilleron Salvo and Francisco Montana in the M15 Quito, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mouilleron Salvo' if Manuel Mouilleron Salvo advances against Francisco Montana. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Montana' if Francisco Montana advances against Manuel Mouilleron Salvo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by trader beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can express that view by trading on Polymarket. This can lead to odds on Polymarket diverging from those found at sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed traders. It's a different way to assess the likelihood of an event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Quito tennis match. As more shares are bought for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Manuel Mouilleron Salvo versus Francisco Montana match in Quito. The platform will look to established sports news sources and official tournament results to determine the winner of the match and settle the market accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected upsets in other matches featuring either player could also shift sentiment. Even general tennis news or analysis could sway traders. The closer we get to Oct 18, 2026, the more sensitive this market will likely be to any new information related to the players or the match itself.