TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 9:42 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Sebastian Osorio and Victor Bini in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Victor Bini. This market will resolve to 'Victor Bini' if Victor Bini advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Sebastian Osorio and Victor Bini in the M15 Quito, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Victor Bini. This market will resolve to 'Victor Bini' if Victor Bini advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market represents the aggregate belief of informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant information asymmetry exists or when a large number of people have strong, but perhaps non-public, insights. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, as traders attempt to capitalize on mispricings between the two types of markets. Examining these differences can be a useful exercise for anyone interested in the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely result of the Quito tennis match. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand for shares on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Juan Sebastian Osorio versus Victor Bini match in Quito. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final share price at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 15, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (such as weather), or updates on player form could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in the tennis world, could also play a role. Significant betting activity from well-informed traders could also cause noticeable price movements, as could any public statements made by the players themselves or their coaches. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves.