TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 1:29 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between William Norton and Sebastian Heinrich in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Norton' if William Norton advances against Sebastian Heinrich. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Heinrich' if Sebastian Heinrich advances against William Norton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between William Norton and Sebastian Heinrich in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Norton' if William Norton advances against Sebastian Heinrich. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Heinrich' if Sebastian Heinrich advances against William Norton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may react more slowly to new information or public sentiment than the dynamic pricing of a prediction market. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of William Norton winning the Monastir tennis match. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on available information and their own analysis of the players and potential match conditions.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the William Norton versus Sebastian Heinrich tennis match in Monastir. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events based on the resolved result of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (such as weather), or updates on player form could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player might also impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate new information or a change in expectations, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring tennis news and following expert analysis can provide insights into potential catalysts.