TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:58 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Aunion and Leandro Zgraggen in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Aunion' if Pablo Aunion advances against Leandro Zgraggen. This market will resolve to 'Leandro Zgraggen' if Leandro Zgraggen advances against Pablo Aunion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Aunion and Leandro Zgraggen in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Aunion' if Pablo Aunion advances against Leandro Zgraggen. This market will resolve to 'Leandro Zgraggen' if Leandro Zgraggen advances against Pablo Aunion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or changing circumstances than sportsbooks, as traders can instantly adjust their positions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s potential results. This allows traders to express their views and profit from correctly anticipating the outcome of the Aunion vs Zgraggen match.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Monastir tennis match between Pablo Aunion and Leandro Zgraggen. The platform will verify the match result against established tennis data sources to determine the winning player. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. The outcome will be determined by the official tournament results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches within the tournament might also impact perceptions of player momentum. Furthermore, external factors like weather conditions at the M15 Monastir event could play a role. A strong performance by either Aunion or Zgraggen in a preceding match would likely cause a shift in the market, as would any public statements or analysis from tennis experts.