TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 9:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Picard and Leo Borg in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Picard' if Mathys Picard advances against Leo Borg. This market will resolve to 'Leo Borg' if Leo Borg advances against Mathys Picard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Picard and Leo Borg in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Picard' if Mathys Picard advances against Leo Borg. This market will resolve to 'Leo Borg' if Leo Borg advances against Mathys Picard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and may adjust them based on betting action, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant difference emerges between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the discrepancy. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information and perspectives that sportsbooks might overlook, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Picard vs Borg match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the event, the more the price will likely move as new information becomes available and traders refine their assessments. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is directly derived from the share price.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mathys Picard versus Leo Borg match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself can drive price movements, as traders react to new information or attempt to capitalize on perceived mispricings. Public sentiment and expert analysis, if widely disseminated, may also contribute to shifts in the market’s assessment.