TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 8:37 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castagnola and Kasra Rahmani in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castagnola' if Luca Castagnola advances against Kasra Rahmani. This market will resolve to 'Kasra Rahmani' if Kasra Rahmani advances against Luca Castagnola. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castagnola and Kasra Rahmani in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castagnola' if Luca Castagnola advances against Kasra Rahmani. This market will resolve to 'Kasra Rahmani' if Kasra Rahmani advances against Luca Castagnola. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to represent the true probability of an event occurring as assessed by traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when there is strong public sentiment or a significant amount of information available. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where the crowd believes there is value, or where the market is mispricing the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Monastir tournament match between Luca Castagnola and Kasra Rahmani. This includes verification of the match score and any relevant rulings made by the tournament officials. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified result. The platform will handle the payout process automatically based on the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or significant shifts in public perception could all impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player form or strategy could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.