TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:03 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Adan Freire Da Silva and Leo Borg in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adan Freire Da Silva' if Adan Freire Da Silva advances against Leo Borg. This market will resolve to 'Leo Borg' if Leo Borg advances against Adan Freire Da Silva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Adan Freire Da Silva and Leo Borg in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adan Freire Da Silva' if Adan Freire Da Silva advances against Leo Borg. This market will resolve to 'Leo Borg' if Leo Borg advances against Adan Freire Da Silva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individual traders expressing their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome, the odds on Polymarket may diverge. It’s common to see differences, especially before a lot of money has been traded on the market, as information asymmetry plays a role. This allows for potential arbitrage opportunities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a specific outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The market’s price isn’t determined by a central authority but emerges from the interactions of all participants, creating a dynamic and potentially more accurate forecast than static odds.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Adan Freire vs Leo Borg match, as reported by a recognized sporting authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final share price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their shares.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 20, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue might also have an impact. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants on Polymarket can cause significant price movements. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also indirectly affect the market, as traders incorporate this information into their predictions. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.