TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:32 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Arevalo and Gerardo Delgado in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Arevalo' if Sebastian Arevalo advances against Gerardo Delgado. This market will resolve to 'Gerardo Delgado' if Gerardo Delgado advances against Sebastian Arevalo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Arevalo and Gerardo Delgado in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Arevalo' if Sebastian Arevalo advances against Gerardo Delgado. This market will resolve to 'Gerardo Delgado' if Gerardo Delgado advances against Sebastian Arevalo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to adjust probabilities based on their own research and information. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from those seen here, it could indicate a disagreement about the likely outcome or differing levels of information available to each group. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities as events approach.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket, and it's a dynamic representation of collective prediction.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mazatlan tennis match between Sebastian Arevalo and Gerardo Delgado. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also impact perceptions of their relative strengths. Major upsets in similar tournaments or changes in betting patterns at sportsbooks could also contribute to price movement. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning will likely cause fluctuations in this market.