TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 9:01 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Joaquin Guilleme in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Joaquin Guilleme. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Guilleme' if Joaquin Guilleme advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Joaquin Guilleme in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Joaquin Guilleme. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Guilleme' if Joaquin Guilleme advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, potentially incorporating biases or aiming to balance their book. This market, however, allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs, leading to odds that may more accurately represent the true probability of an outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, and these differences can create opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the market's implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the true likelihood of each player winning the Mazatlan tennis match. The platform uses a constant product formula to ensure that the market remains liquid and responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mazatlan tennis match between Matias Soto and Joaquin Guilleme. The platform will verify the winner based on publicly available match results, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets based on the verified result.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on their recent performance could shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player strategies or coaching changes might also impact the perceived probability of each player winning. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed bettors could signal new information or a change in expectations, causing the odds to adjust accordingly. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential movements in this market.