TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:12 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Frazier Rengifo in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Frazier Rengifo. This market will resolve to 'Frazier Rengifo' if Frazier Rengifo advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Frazier Rengifo in the M15 Mazatlan, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Frazier Rengifo. This market will resolve to 'Frazier Rengifo' if Frazier Rengifo advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often diverging from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant difference emerges between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that the market perceives information not yet fully priced into the sportsbook lines. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sets.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each possible result in the Soto vs Rengifo match. The current price represents the market’s consensus probability.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Matias Soto versus Frazier Rengifo match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, injuries, or changes in their condition would likely impact the odds. Public statements from trainers or analysts offering insights into the fighters’ strategies could also shift sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might also draw attention and influence trading behavior. Finally, as the event draws closer, increased media coverage and public discussion surrounding the Soto vs Rengifo match are likely to generate more trading volume and price movement.