TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 8:21 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaue Noatto and Francisco Fontes Damorim in the M15 Maringa, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:25PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaue Noatto' if Kaue Noatto advances against Francisco Fontes Damorim. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Fontes Damorim' if Francisco Fontes Damorim advances against Kaue Noatto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaue Noatto and Francisco Fontes Damorim in the M15 Maringa, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:25PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaue Noatto' if Kaue Noatto advances against Francisco Fontes Damorim. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Fontes Damorim' if Francisco Fontes Damorim advances against Kaue Noatto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and trader sentiment. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, increasing its implied probability, while the opposite is true for lower demand. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new insights.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Kaue Noatto vs Francisco Fontes fight as determined by the relevant sporting authority. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might also attract attention and impact trading activity. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and updated fight previews could sway opinions and lead to price adjustments. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either fighter winning has the potential to move this market.