TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:51 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira and Vitor Leal in the M15 Maringa, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira' if Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira advances against Vitor Leal. This market will resolve to 'Vitor Leal' if Vitor Leal advances against Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira and Vitor Leal in the M15 Maringa, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira' if Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira advances against Vitor Leal. This market will resolve to 'Vitor Leal' if Vitor Leal advances against Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Nogueira vs Leal fight. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event. This creates a dynamic market where odds can change rapidly based on new information or shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Nogueira vs Leal fight, as declared by the relevant sporting authority. Any official decision, including a knockout, technical knockout, submission, or decision by the judges, will determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks could also impact the market. Furthermore, any analysis from reputable MMA analysts predicting a clear advantage for either fighter could cause shifts in the odds. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either fighter winning has the potential to move this market.