TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 1:01 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Basel and Pedro Sakamoto in the M15 Maceio, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Basel' if Valentin Basel advances against Pedro Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Sakamoto' if Pedro Sakamoto advances against Valentin Basel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Basel and Pedro Sakamoto in the M15 Maceio, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Basel' if Valentin Basel advances against Pedro Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Sakamoto' if Pedro Sakamoto advances against Valentin Basel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of shares representing that outcome will rise. This can lead to discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes aggregate information more efficiently and accurately than traditional methods. It's a good way to gauge public sentiment surrounding the Basel vs Sakamoto match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, constantly adjusting the probabilities based on trader activity. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system for the Basel vs Sakamoto match.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Maceio match between Valentin Basel and Pedro Sakamoto. The platform will verify the winner against official tournament results and publicly available data. The outcome will be determined by which player wins the match, as declared by the official tournament organizers. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final share price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either Valentin Basel or Pedro Sakamoto could also impact perceptions of their relative strengths. Publicly released analysis from tennis experts or changes in betting odds from sportsbooks might also cause traders to reassess their positions. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning the Basel vs Sakamoto match has the potential to move this market.