TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:32 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Basel and Mateus Napoli da Silveira in the M15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Basel' if Valentin Basel advances against Mateus Napoli da Silveira. This market will resolve to 'Mateus Napoli da Silveira' if Mateus Napoli da Silveira advances against Valentin Basel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Basel and Mateus Napoli da Silveira in the M15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Basel' if Valentin Basel advances against Mateus Napoli da Silveira. This market will resolve to 'Mateus Napoli da Silveira' if Mateus Napoli da Silveira advances against Valentin Basel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant difference emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both venues. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets often incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular player will drive up the price, increasing their implied chance of winning the Maceio tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the Valentin Basel versus Mateus Napoli da Silveira match in Maceio. The player who wins the match, as determined by official tournament results, will be the winning outcome for this market. Any potential disputes will be assessed based on publicly available and verifiable information regarding the match’s final result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on their recent performance could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about either Valentin Basel or Mateus Napoli da Silveira’s fitness levels or strategic changes would likely cause significant movement. Additionally, any expert analysis or public predictions regarding the match’s likely outcome could also impact the prices on Polymarket.