TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 5:51 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Gagliardo and Ignacio Monzon in the M15 Maceio, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Gagliardo' if Lorenzo Gagliardo advances against Ignacio Monzon. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Monzon' if Ignacio Monzon advances against Lorenzo Gagliardo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Gagliardo and Ignacio Monzon in the M15 Maceio, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Gagliardo' if Lorenzo Gagliardo advances against Ignacio Monzon. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Monzon' if Ignacio Monzon advances against Lorenzo Gagliardo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Therefore, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or risk assessments. It’s common to see prediction markets react quickly to new information and potentially offer more accurate probabilities, especially as an event approaches. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the expected outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, and there are no external factors influencing the valuation. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gagliardo vs Monzon match, as declared by the relevant tennis authorities. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. The market's settlement is dependent on a clear and definitive result being established.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 29, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like court surface or weather), or significant shifts in expert opinions could all impact trading activity. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving these players, or broader trends in tennis performance, might also cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Major announcements related to the tournament itself, such as schedule changes or rule modifications, could also contribute to market movement. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.