TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:35 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between bautista de la Pena and Luka Bojicic Ono in the M15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'bautista de la Pena' if bautista de la Pena advances against Luka Bojicic Ono. This market will resolve to 'Luka Bojicic Ono' if Luka Bojicic Ono advances against bautista de la Pena. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between bautista de la Pena and Luka Bojicic Ono in the M15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'bautista de la Pena' if bautista de la Pena advances against Luka Bojicic Ono. This market will resolve to 'Luka Bojicic Ono' if Luka Bojicic Ono advances against bautista de la Pena. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on traders’ individual assessments. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It is important to note that prediction markets often exhibit lower margins than sportsbooks, potentially offering better value to informed bettors.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a specific outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective prediction. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders on Polymarket regarding the likely winner of the Maceio tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the bautista de la Pena vs Luka Bojicic Ono tennis match in Maceio. The winner of the match, as declared by the official tournament organizers, will determine the winning outcome in this market. Any disputes regarding the official result will be addressed using publicly available information from recognized tennis authorities.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 25, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (such as weather forecasts), or updates on player form could all shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players might also impact market sentiment. Furthermore, any significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could cause noticeable price movements, reflecting a change in the collective assessment of the match's likely outcome.