TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 3:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Bassem Sobhy and Eli Stephenson in the M15 Lexington, KY, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Bassem Sobhy' if Michael Bassem Sobhy advances against Eli Stephenson. This market will resolve to 'Eli Stephenson' if Eli Stephenson advances against Michael Bassem Sobhy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Bassem Sobhy and Eli Stephenson in the M15 Lexington, KY, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Bassem Sobhy' if Michael Bassem Sobhy advances against Eli Stephenson. This market will resolve to 'Eli Stephenson' if Eli Stephenson advances against Michael Bassem Sobhy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks incorporate a profit margin into their odds, aiming to profit from the spread. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders, theoretically reflecting the true probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in the participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as traders react quickly to developments affecting the match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Sobhy vs Stephenson match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, reflecting the evolving consensus. The market's efficiency depends on active participation and the availability of relevant information.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sobhy vs Stephenson match, as declared by the governing body of the competition. The platform will then verify the result against reliable sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements to understand the final result and the timing of market closure.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries to either Michael Bassem Sobhy or Eli Stephenson, or changes in coaching strategies could shift the odds. Unexpected results in prior matches, or even weather conditions affecting play, might also influence trader sentiment. Public statements from analysts or experts offering opinions on the match’s likely outcome could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market before Oct 21, 2026.