TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:31 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Mesarovic and Alejandro Moreno in the M15 Lexington, KY, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Mesarovic' if Marko Mesarovic advances against Alejandro Moreno. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Moreno' if Alejandro Moreno advances against Marko Mesarovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Mesarovic and Alejandro Moreno in the M15 Lexington, KY, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Mesarovic' if Marko Mesarovic advances against Alejandro Moreno. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Moreno' if Alejandro Moreno advances against Marko Mesarovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin regardless of the outcome. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders, aiming to accurately reflect the true probability of each outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, prediction markets can rapidly adjust to new information and potentially outperform sportsbook predictions, especially as the event approaches and more data emerges. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of shares reflects the aggregate opinion of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential results of the Mesarovic vs Moreno match. This contrasts with fixed-odds betting, where the odds are set in advance and do not change based on market activity.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mesarovic vs Moreno match as reported by the governing tennis organization. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result. Traders who held shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 20, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also create volatility. Furthermore, public opinion and expert analysis, if they deviate from the current market consensus, might prompt traders to reassess their positions. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments is crucial for understanding potential market movements.