TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 1:20 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between bautista de la Pena and Fermin Tenti in the M15 João Pessoa, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'bautista de la Pena' if bautista de la Pena advances against Fermin Tenti. This market will resolve to 'Fermin Tenti' if Fermin Tenti advances against bautista de la Pena. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between bautista de la Pena and Fermin Tenti in the M15 João Pessoa, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'bautista de la Pena' if bautista de la Pena advances against Fermin Tenti. This market will resolve to 'Fermin Tenti' if Fermin Tenti advances against bautista de la Pena. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. If sportsbook odds initially favor one player, but volume in this market suggests a different outcome, the prediction market price may move in opposition. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks, especially as more information becomes available closer to the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the João Pessoa tennis match. As more shares are traded, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective expectation of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a maximum of 100. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up its price, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic process establishes a market-determined probability.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the João Pessoa tennis match between Bautista de la Pena and Fermin Tenti will determine the resolution. The platform will rely on official tournament results to verify the outcome. Any disputes will be handled according to Polymarket’s guidelines, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or even shifts in expert analysis could all cause the odds to move. Unexpected announcements about either Bautista de la Pena or Fermin Tenti’s form or fitness would likely have a significant impact. Any updates on their recent performance or strategic changes could also drive trading volume and alter the perceived probabilities within this market. Monitoring tennis news sources will be key to understanding potential catalysts.